JOIN OUR WHATSAPP CHANNEL
Johns Hopkins University report predicts Coronavirus crisis might increase in India
A report by Johns Hopkins University has predicted that the Coronavirus crisis might increase in India in the coming weeks. Read on to know more.
Indian is currently under a government-imposed lockdown. With borders, schools, offices, shopping malls, theatres and other public places shut, 1.3 billion people have been instructed to practice social distancing in the country, in an attempt to fight the COVID-19 pandemic which is haunting the entire world. The deadly virus has reportedly already infected more than 800 people in the country and has claimed the lives of 19. As the future remains uncertain, considering scientists are still trying to find a solution to the ongoing health crisis, a report by US-based Johns Hopkins University states that India needs to work on increasing the Coronavirus testing.
The report suggests that the country needs to increase the testing to catch the cases early. Considering the number of recorded cases will increase with more testing, people will start taking the situation more seriously. “Delays in testing are seriously reducing the ability of the population to protect itself. This is the most important way in which we can contain the epidemic. An increase in the official number of detected cases in the short term could encourage the population to take distancing more seriously and will reduce panic compared to a big spike later,” the report stated.
According to the report, 200 million will be infected in the country by May. Even though the government has declared shut down, the report mentions that people need to take the situation more seriously and understand the importance of social distancing. “Immediate social distancing focused on the elderly population is essential. We have modeled a three-week period of complete isolation for the elderly. The longer this period, the more we are able to delay infections into the post-July period,” the report read.
In the most likely scenario, if people strictly follow the social distancing rule, there will be ‘medium’ spread of the virus. This will limit the spread of the life-threatening disease to just 200 million in May and from there, it will eventually die down. However, there is a possibility that things could go further south. Even with the lockdown, there are chances that the infection rate could be ‘high’ if social distancing is not followed properly. In such a scenario, there is a possibility that about 250 million people might end up contracting the virus by April.
In the most optimistic scenario, the virus will weaken on its own and people will strictly follow social distancing. Reportedly, about 25 million people in Maharashtra are at risk of contracting the disease. In the most likely scenario, the deadly virus could affect 20 million individuals. So far, the state has recorded about 150 cases.
In Kerala, on the other hand, the virus could end up infecting about 80,000 people. While the numbers might seem better than Maharashtra’s figures, we need to consider that the state has one-fourth of Maharashtra’s population. The report suggests that in comparison to other countries, India has a relatively younger population and this could be favourable. Summer in the country could help control the spread. “Temperature and humidity increase should help us in reducing caseload. Although the evidence is limited, it is plausible,” the report suggested.
