EXCLUSIVE: Where is the third wave? Experts answer

Most of us might be living in the constant fear of a third wave knocking our doors soon. More so, because September was the hot target of many experts who predicted that the third wave might hit India in late August or early September and could peak towards the end of the month. However, all these proved to be mere speculations, given the continuous downfall in COVID cases.

The mind-boggling questions, now, are where is the third wave? And will there be any?

While it may be too early to dismiss the fact that a third wave won’t hit India any time soon, or at least till this month, but we won’t be wrong to say that COVID-19 has given a strong shock to all the experts and scientists with its uniqueness, who are struggling to draw concrete conclusions about the virus.

Dr. Vikas Maurya, Director and Head of Department, Pulmonology, Fortis Hospital Shalimar Bagh, tells you that the models that suggested a third wave may hit India in September this year, were all based on the experience of September, last year. This might be one of the reasons why these went wrong.

“When the second wave came in – it happened mainly because of the virulent delta variant. Also, at that time many people were not vaccinated. But as for the third wave, a lot of these predications did not factor in the following: That many people in the country would have already been infected by a very virulent variant and would therefore have developed antibodies, and that many people in the country would have gotten vaccinated,” says Maurya. Additionally, these models, he says, are based on what the country saw as of September 2020.

“So that is why maybe they are not adding up. I think that in Maharashtra and the southern States, people are still being infected by the delta variant, that may be the reason behind the increasing cases,” adds Maurya.

Dr. HK Mahajan, Anaesthesiologist, Indian Spinal Injuries Centre, Vasant Kunj, tells you that the SUTRA model, developed by a Government constituted panel of scientists, predicted that the third wave would hit the country during October-November this year. “But a report prepared by State Bank of India Research anticipated that the third wave will commence in the second half of August and peak in September. This prediction has not been proved true so far. Daily cases are under control,” says Mahajan.

Above predictions, he adds, are derived from meticulously crafted mathematical models. The virus may be creating its own models for new mutations. “The variants that emerge may defy the assumptions that underlie the models. The modelers do caution about the predictions going astray because of new and more infectious variants emerging. Like the second wave, different parts of India may experience it at different periods within a broad time frame. Even as of now, there are parts of India with high test positivity rates and rising daily case counts. The second wave has not receded uniformly across the country. Very recently, the Director General of the Indian Council of Medical Research cautioned that 80 districts still have high test positivity rates,” explains Mahajan.

So, does this mean that the third wave might be much more severe than what we have predicted? Experts believe otherwise.

“No. I don’t think it will be much more severe because many people in the country have developed antibodies, whether because of the infection or the vaccine. For the third wave to be more severe than the second, the variant of the virus will have to be more infectious than the Delta one and this seems unlikely,” opines Maurya.

Dr. Ravi Shekhar Jha, Additional Director and Head of Department, Pulmonology, Fortis Escorts Hospital Faridabad, dismisses the assumption that a third wave may not at all hit the country this year and comes with a bang next year. Instead, he opines that the third wave might come near Diwali, but will not be severe enough.

“Third wave is very likely to come this year near Diwali – India follows pattern of the West, we have already seen high number of cases in Maharashtra and Kerala. However, it should not be as bad as the second wave because of the following: people being double vaccinated, antibodies developed because of infection (majority of Indians got infected in the second wave) and not as virulent a variant as Delta," says Jha.

In any case, masks, gloves, sanitizers, and social distancing remain our protective shields.

“Hospitals, too, should stay prepared. They should set up an own oxygen plant, medical resources should be in store, staff need to be replenished and stocked, protocols need to be in place (as they have been for the last year and half). I think most hospitals are taking care of the same based on Government orders and therefore, I feel, we will sail through the third wave strong,” says Maurya.

For the next two weeks, Mahajan says, we should be more vigilant to deal with any occurrence of new cases of COVID. “Hospitals should continue to have arrangements and preparations in the form of sufficient number of ICU beds, oxygen beds and plenty of medicines to deal with sudden increased in the number of cases. At the moment we can wait and keep a careful watch to deal with the third wave. Mass vaccination is the key to provide herd immunity,” adds Mahajan.

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